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Prediction for CME (2025-01-21T10:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-21T10:53Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36532/-1
CME Note: Bright CME and faint shock to the SE in STEREO COR2A, not yet observed in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 due to a downlink gap except for a very few late SOHO C3 frames. The source is an M3.3 class flare from AR 3967 peaking at 2025-01-21T10:39Z. Starting around 2025-01-21T09:42Z, a wide area of the disk East and South of AR 13967 brightens up in SDO AIA 304/GOES SUVI 304 with observed filament ejecta fanning out to the SE. Field line movement and extensive dimming, with an EUV wave, over this area also observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211. Partially overlaps with far-sided CME: 2025-01-21T09:12Z.
CME Arrival Time: -----
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME: -----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-24T10:01Z (-6.1h, +7.3h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/01/21 10:50Z
Plane of Sky 1: 19:20Z; 31.5Rsun; SSE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 23:20Z; 31.5Rsun; NNW Direction
POS Difference: 4:00
POS Midpoint: 21:20Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:30

Numeric View/Impact Type: 3
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.78
Travel Time: ~6.78 * 10:30 = 71:11

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-24T10:01Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh

*** This prediction might be updated if more imagery becomes available.


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/01/22 00:32Z

Lead Time: 57.43 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-01-22T00:35Z

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